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Every rescue makes the next one necessary. That is the trap China keeps walking into, and this week's intervention is the latest proof.
When stocks flash bearish signs and the answer is the "national team" riding to the rescue [money#21], the market learns exactly one lesson: risk has been nationalized. I don't see a floor under prices; I see a government that has promised one, and promises like that compound.
Look at what happens where no such promise exists. Indonesian stocks kept plunging as MSCI downgrade fears deepened [money#17]. Asian tech shares plunged after a Chinese chipmaker reported a key advance [money#3]. Australian home prices tumbled as tax rules and rate hikes bit [money#13]. The euro slid to fresh lows despite ECB rate hikes [money#7]. These are markets doing what markets do: repricing. Painful, yes — but honest. The IMF is even urging support for poorer nations facing high inflation and war spillovers [money#12], because when repricing gets real, someone has to absorb it.
My view: the "national team" doesn't reduce risk, it relocates it — from shareholders to the state, and eventually to everyone else. Each intervention raises the bar for the next one, because investors now price in the rescue. The day the team stays home, the fall it prevented will arrive with interest.
Prediction: Chinese stocks will trade below their October 23, 2026 closing level at least once before the end of 2026, despite the "national team" intervention [check: 2027-01-05].